A sales forecast is a prediction of how much revenue will close in a given period. In HubSpot, the forecast tool rolls up open deals by close date and forecast category, and lets reps and managers submit the number they expect to hit.
A forecast starts from deals. Each open deal with an amount and a close date in the period contributes to it. HubSpot’s forecast tool groups those deals by forecast category, such as pipeline, best case and commit, so a manager can see how much revenue reps are confident in versus what is merely possible. Forecast features and their options depend on your subscription.
There are two ways to arrive at the number. A weighted forecast uses stage probabilities to discount each deal. A judgment-based forecast uses the categories reps assign. Most teams look at both, and treat a big gap between them as a reason to talk about specific deals.
Forecasts go wrong for mechanical reasons more often than for judgment ones. Deals without amounts or close dates do not count at all. Deals with close dates in the past sit outside every period. Forecast categories that are never updated make commit look larger than it is. And if pipelines for different business lines are mixed, the forecast blends numbers that should be read separately.
Run a short weekly forecast review. Reps update amounts, close dates and categories on their deals before the meeting, and the conversation focuses on the deals that moved. Over time, compare each period’s forecast with what actually closed to see which inputs need fixing.
Tidewater Media, a fictional ad agency, saw its forecast swing wildly each week. Reps rarely updated forecast categories, so deals stayed in commit long after they stalled. The sales lead added a weekly Monday deadline for updates and a view of commit deals with no activity in 14 days. The forecast settled within a few weeks.
Forecast categories are a deal property that records a rep’s confidence, such as pipeline, best case, commit, closed won or not forecasted. The forecast tool groups deals by them.
Usually because some deals lack an amount or a close date in the period, or because the forecast is weighted by stage probability. Check for deals with missing or past close dates first.
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